From Ride Targets to Transit Budgets

TL;DR: A useful transit comparison needs one annual target so each service option answers the same demand and budget question. While working on the coding project, I found separate bus and rideshare estimates hard to compare; a shared-target slider now reallocates demand between the two service types and shows the modeled hours and cost ranges.

Hold demand steady while comparing service

The Living Region transit model uses one annual target and lets a reader change the service mix around it. Its default Owen Sound planning scenario sets that target at 16,640 rides per year. The value is a planning scenario that readers can replace with local counts as they become available.

The slider runs from 100% scheduled buses at the left to 100% on-demand rideshare at the right. At the midpoint, each mode receives half the target. The calculator keeps the target steady at each slider position. Try it in the live Owen Sound Transit Cost Model.

Scheduled buses	On-demand rideshare	Annual target	Modeled vehicle-hours/year	Modeled net annual cost (Canadian dollars, CAD)
100%	0%	16,640	2,080	CAD $266,720–$350,040
50%	50%	16,640	about 3,120	about CAD $265,618–$323,407
0%	100%	16,640	4,160	CAD $264,516–$296,774

These modeled net costs come from the deployed Phase 1 scenario. The midpoint applies half of each mode’s starting values. The ranges overlap, so planners can weigh service coverage and operating needs alongside estimated cost.

Trace each estimate from rides to hours and dollars

The calculator scales each service component from its base scenario. Its core calculation is:

component scale = allocated rides ÷ baseline rides
modeled hours   = baseline hours × component scale
gross cost      = baseline cost × component scale
fare revenue    = baseline fares × component scale
net local cost  = gross cost − fare revenue − recurring funding

A baseline is the model’s starting set of service values. A vehicle-hour means one service vehicle operating for one hour. Rideshare windows convert annual targets to hours at the planning rate of four completed rides per vehicle-hour. The scheduled-bus baseline uses the selected transit phase’s projected additional passenger boardings, hours, costs, and fares. The service-mix implementation scales each baseline by its allocated ride count.

The slider uses one annual target across both service types. Its scheduled component uses passenger boardings, while rideshare uses modeled completed rides. A boarding is one passenger getting onto a bus. Transit reports often count each boarding as a passenger trip; a rideshare model may count one vehicle journey as one completed ride. A planner can define the target unit and map local records to it before using the figures for an operating decision.

The annual target, cost ranges, and fare ranges are planning assumptions. Local passenger counts, operator quotes, accessibility needs, booking support, and winter backup plans can refine those inputs.

Follow the model’s design history

The current slider grew from a series of smaller planning questions in the Living Region transit history. The project first added on-demand service scenarios, then added editable annual ride targets by service window. That let a planner compare Sunday daytime, weekday evenings, Saturday daytime, and Saturday evenings.

Next, the model added separate scheduled-bus and rideshare choices, then expanded the network comparison to include zero core buses. Those steps made the available service choices clearer. The later shared-demand slider added a direct way to compare a service mix against one annual target, with shareable link settings for the ride target and slider position.

The latest endpoint-label update makes the slider’s direction explicit: 100% scheduled buses on the left and 100% on-demand rideshare on the right. GitHub’s build check and deployment check for that update both completed successfully.

Use the pattern with local evidence

Another community can adapt the model by recording one row per service window and marking the evidence behind each value:

Service window	Annual target	Service share	Rides per vehicle-hour	Cost range per hour	Fare range per ride	Evidence basis
[name]	[rides/year]	[0–100%]	[rides/hour]	[CAD/hour low–high]	[CAD/ride low–high]	[count, quote, or planning assumption]

The Transportation Research Board’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 98 documents a method for estimating vehicles and vehicle-service hours across demand and service levels. Its planning tool simulates trip patterns and vehicle assignments; the Owen Sound calculator scales its chosen starting values proportionally. The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) publishes definitions and operating records through the National Transit Database (NTD). The NTD glossary defines demand-response service (a vehicle arrives after a rider requests a trip), passenger trips (each passenger boarding), and vehicle revenue-hours (recorded vehicle service time). These references help a planner choose consistent units; local records and supplier quotes provide the working numbers.

Make the comparison reusable

For a human reader, the model answers what service mix an estimate describes. For an agent or analyst, it gives a structured chain: target, service share, rides-per-hour assumption, vehicle-hours, and cost range. Another community can replace scenario values with local ridership counts, operator quotes, and an agreed definition of a trip, creating a decision record residents, planners, and agents can inspect as service changes.